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EPW has a come out with an extensive scholarly review of the recent Indian elections. All the papers are interesting; however the one which I liked the most is this paper by Pradeep Chhibber where he looks at the voting in national elections conditional on the state level verdicts. In his own words:

Mining data from the National Election Study, this paper
cites evidence to show that the perception of the central
government mattered for those who voted for the
United Progressive Alliance, but not for those who voted
for the National Democratic Alliance or other parties.
It says that the vote for the upa was mostly independent
of a voter’s perception of the performance of his or her
state government. In addition, even after controlling
for state-specific factors there were some political
cleavages that influenced the vote for the upa and the
nda. This suggests that national factors did have an
influence on the vote for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections
though state-level factors continued to be important.

Mining data from the National Election Study, this paper cites evidence to show that the perception of the central government mattered for those who voted for the United Progressive Alliance, but not for those who voted for the National Democratic Alliance or other parties. It says that the vote for the upa was mostly independent of a voter’s perception of the performance of his or her state government. In addition, even after controlling for state-specific factors there were some political cleavages that influenced the vote for the upa and the nda. This suggests that national factors did have an influence on the vote for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections though state-level factors continued to be important.

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